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AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late? | Ryan Greenblatt
The MAD Podcast with Matt Turck · 2026-08-27
Speaker 1 | 00:00 - 00:21
I think that the AI company CEOs understand that they’re on the path of building wildly smarter than human systems, like super intelligent AI systems. They understand that we don’t really have a, like, clear thought through plan for how to manage the risks from that. I wouldn’t say superintelligence is bad. I would say it’s dangerous. It seems pretty likely that you end up with AI takeover as a result of building superintelligence.
Speaker 1 | 00:21 - 00:39
And so you quickly get from the AIs that are fully automating r and d and AIs that are, quite superhuman at eve…
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Josh Woodward (@joshwoodward)
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Thibault Sottiaux (@thsottiaux)
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Peter Yang (@petergyang)
- One great use of my /no-ai-slop skill (now at 6K GitHub stars) is to ask it to work in reverse.
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- I receive around 3-5 requests to test a new AI product daily. Almost all of them require creating a new account and logging into a separate website or app.
Meanwhile, I basically only use ChatGPT, Grok, etc to do everything on my computer and browser.
These harnesses already have all my context and I don’t want to start over from scratch with a new website or tool that only understands a small slice of my data.
So with a few exceptions, the new products that I’m mostly likely to adopt need to work in today’s top AI harnesses.
I realize only a small segment of users behave this way but I bet this segment will expand drastically soon. [646 ❤️ 28 🔄]
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Nan Yu (@thenanyu)
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- the most important non-default setting you probably don’t have toggled rn (@CleanShot) [166 ❤️]
Madhu Guru (@realmadhuguru)
- If you lead AI for an enterprise, the highest leverage thing you can do is to make your AI stack model agnostic.
There are two things I would invest in.
1/ Today: build an eval suite that fully captures your use cases and business outcomes. Most companies I’ve seen do not do a good job of this.
2/ Within the next year: build the capability to post-train open models. The talent gap here is even more acute, so start planning today.
This gives you the flexibility to switch models, customize them, compare them on your own workloads, and optimize for the best combination of quality, cost and latency.
own the evals, own the models. [173 ❤️ 11 🔄]
Thariq (@trq212)
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Guillermo Rauch (@rauchg)
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- and shaders are further proof that “everything is computer”.
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- Our best products have been exports of internal technology we gain strong conviction in.
@matinotfound and team have been shipping extraordinary WebGPU creative productions, and now is here.
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Aaron Levie (@levie)
- This week’s tech earnings calls were a critical reminder of how valuable the relationship is between software and AI.
Software provides the guardrails for how data is managed, how business logic in workflows are maintained, how you manage and govern access to information, how you protect data, and more. You want these systems to work the same way every time, without fail.
Agents, on the other hand, work inside these systems and with this data to execute on tasks just like people would have. But at a scale far greater than people ever did, which is especially why the deterministic controls matter more than ever.
And in fact many of the best ways to deploy agents will be directly within the software systems themselves, like from Salesforce, Box, Harvey, ServiceNow, and so on. These platforms can optimize agents for their workflows and domains, with evals and context that are unique to their vertical, as well as connect to other
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Garry Tan (@garrytan)
- SF YIMBY Action has been a trash organization for years
Don’t join them and don’t give them money. Support CA YIMBY and YIMBY Law [41 ❤️ 3 🔄]
- The Tampa Bay Wave of influential people in AI [346 ❤️ 2 🔄]
- Seems likely that on a long enough time frame, AI will generate cash flows faster than the economy can find productive uses for new capital [566 ❤️ 26 🔄]
Matt Turck (@mattturck)
- This important conversation with @RyanGreenblatt is also available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and here on YouTube: [6 ❤️]
- AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late? My conversation with @RyanGreenblatt of @redwood_ai about AI 2040, RSI, AI alignment, and how he believes the transition to superintelligence actually unfolds.
01:24 The AI CEOs are aware of the risks, but “proceeding anyway”
03:27 Astra paused, and the “Pacing the Frontier” letter
05:45 “Not bad. Dangerous.” What superintelligence actually threatens
09:55 Recursive self-improvement, and the intuition objection
14:16 SSI rumors: does continual learning change the picture?
17:27 His timeline: “plan as though it happens in 2029”
19:11 Is it already too late?
21:23 Ryan’s path: COVID, podcasts, Redwood
26:30 The alignment faking story, told by the person who ran it
31:30 What AI 2040: Plan A actually is
33:35 Plans D, C, and B: the doors nobody should pick
36:51 The deal with China: “mutually assured compute destruction”
39:55 What if compute stops mattering?
43:00 What happens to OpenAI and Anthropic under Plan A
45:31 How the pause ends, and who decides
48:54 “Plan A isn’t likely to happen”: then why write it
50:40 200x GDP growth in the 2030s, explained
53:45 Grading the summer: the letter, Astra, the secret review
59:01 The internal deployment gap
1:01:38 Zuckerberg’s manifesto
1:04:56 The Hugging Face investigation
1:05:44 What AI control looks like in practice today
1:12:23 Ryan’s sobering timeline: from today to takeover, year by year [33 ❤️ 5 🔄]
Nikunj Kothari (@nikunj)
- Gym bros 🤝 VCs
explaining their gains strategy
“barbell” [70 ❤️]
- The funniest thing about Silicon Valley group chats is that
a) everyone uses Signal with disappearing messages on
but
b) everyone also screenshots and sends these messages around in (sometimes) non-ephemeral channels
Like, what are we doing here friends? 😂 [161 ❤️]
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Peter Steinberger (@steipete)
- This turned out so good! Thank you GitHub folks for making this happen! 🙏 [280 ❤️ 21 🔄]
Dan Shipper (@danshipper)
- agi? [76 ❤️ 2 🔄]
Sam Altman (@sama)
- this is a critically important moment for cyber defense with AI; there is not much time to act.
we are happy if you want to work with us or any of our competitors or partners, but please take this moment seriously.
only an urgent and intense collective response will work. [13560 ❤️ 1095 🔄]
Claude (@claudeai)
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由 Follow Builders 自动生成 · 2026-08-28