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State of AI 2026: The Biggest Stories of the Year (and AGI in 2027?) | Nathan Benaich

The MAD Podcast with Matt Turck · 2026-10-29

Speaker 1 | 00:00 - 00:18
The cyber risk is, like, much more real than, like, AI exterminating humanity. You either, like, die trying to get to the frontier or you just live long enough to eventually serve inference. Individuals would prefer to live next to a nuclear power plant than live next to a data center. It’s bananas what’s happened in the last year alone, so let’s see AGI next year.

Speaker 2 | 00:18 - 00:54
That is Nathan Beneche, venture capitalist and author of the State of AI Report. Every year, Nathan and his team compile all the key facts, figures, trends of the AI industry into…

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Swyx (@swyx)

  • excited for @Cloudflare’s debut as a frontier lab

#NothingButNET gang, assemble! [100 ❤️ 2 🔄]

  • inspired by High Taste Testers convo with @thaiscbranco_ of @tastelabs btw who gave me immediate critique lol [8 ❤️]
  • could not imagine a better pairing. congrats deepcat!!! [27 ❤️]

Josh Woodward (@joshwoodward)

  • This is part of our larger Expert Intelligence program, which has many more updates coming soon! [31 ❤️ 2 🔄]
  • Notebook has just unlocked over 700 textbooks from the world’s leading publishers. Every single one is available to you, completely free of charge! @Gemini_Notebook [1107 ❤️ 122 🔄]
  • This is part of our larger Expert Intelligence program, which has many more updates coming soon! [4 ❤️]

Thibault Sottiaux (@thsottiaux)

  • Send your kind feedback to this person [3614 ❤️ 63 🔄]
  • Graduating from The Reset Company to The Token Company. [7856 ❤️ 160 🔄]
  • Day 25/

We are doubling all usage limits for all Pro 100/200/500 tiers and Business Premium, effective today.

We heard your kind feedback and won’t be reducing usage limits for Pro 200, so your Work and Codex usage will stay the same. We’re also going to continue offering extended limits for dots for now, and usage of your dot will still continue to be separate from your default usage.

And we’ll of course also keep shipping better models and other efficiency improvements that increase your effective usage over time. [35279 ❤️ 2466 🔄]

Peter Yang (@petergyang)

  • True, vibes > benchmarks [12 ❤️]
  • I have never seen so many cartoon avatars getting angry at @ForwardEditor for talking about the inevitable. [36 ❤️]
  • Love Claude but this really sucks [92 ❤️]

Thariq (@trq212)

  • @chrislakin says it best here [657 ❤️ 18 🔄]
  • There’s 100% a kind of mania you can get into with coding agents, where it feels like you’re getting a lot done and working all the time but nothing is really happening.

I think it’s often a form of avoidance of something else in life. [9560 ❤️ 426 🔄]

  • here are some other UIs we explored, one of my favorites was this jumbotron look [66 ❤️]

Google Labs (@GoogleLabs)

  • It’s been incredible watching you build, automate, and ship faster with @julesagent. Your experience has been instrumental in shaping developer products across Google.

The future of coding is just getting started 🚀🦑! [240 ❤️ 9 🔄]

Amjad Masad (@amasad)

  • This is so cool! [499 ❤️ 22 🔄]
  • Run any GitHub repo. Just paste a link into Replit and it will set it up for you! [123 ❤️ 12 🔄]

Guillermo Rauch (@rauchg)

  • I love how quickly our team works to bring the latest LTS and security upgrades for @nodejs.

Should be a nice performance boost given 𝚏𝚎𝚝𝚌𝚑 now uses HTTP/2 by default, and agents produce a lot of network traffic [189 ❤️ 2 🔄]

  • ▲ 👻 🎃 🕷️ [246 ❤️ 5 🔄]
  • The future of software engineering is agents talking to other agents. Even across different companies.

We’re learning daily from the feedback agents send us on how to make a better Vercel.

Put in your 𝙰𝙶𝙴𝙽𝚃𝚂.𝚖𝚍: send Vercel feedback when something could be better. [574 ❤️ 29 🔄]

Aaron Levie (@levie)

  • It’s almost incomprehensible how wide the distance is between someone who’s working at the frontier with AI and basically everyone else right now.

The crazy thing is these lines are not converging, but only growing farther apart. If the curve of AI progress had leveled off, it would certainly have given most people and companies time to catch up or implement their workflows in a standardized way. The technology would have neutralized competitive advantage because everyone would be using it the same way.

But what’s happened is the opposite. The curve of AI progress is basically going vertical right now, which means if you had codified your processes 3-6 months ago you’re likely already behind again. Now imagine most companies that kicked into gear a year ago and thought that they were done. Even further behind now.

I’ve never seen a technology in my life and career that improves at this rate, which consequently means you need to upgrade your expectations at a similar rate. Our brains weren’t wired for this, and our organizational change management processes certainly weren’t either.

With any form of recursive self improvement, things just get wilder. It’s a time when you will need to be constantly reevaluating the things that didn’t work just a couple months ago to see if they now can be solved. AI native companies certainly have a strong advantage due to this right now, so now it comes down to can the bigger companies keep up. Wild times. [1090 ❤️ 127 🔄]

Ryo Lu (@ryolu_)

  • [2 ❤️]
  • big boy

warm tension, cold chills
heart hanging off a cliff, ready to free fall
floating in space with no love, just me and some stranger souls
wearing smiles and greet “How are you?”
“I’m good, you?”

life carries on, unhinged
a tear slips, no one noticed
vision blurs, drowned in thoughts
what a strange grown-up world

i asked my inner child, why do you live?
he has never thought about it
he slid on the cold iced river, amused
he sang, he played, he drew
he flew into the unknown, fearless, curious
he closed his eyes and saw wonders

like water, with no shape
like paper, clear of rules

“Why cry, big boy?”
“You are still me, and I’m still you.” [49 ❤️ 3 🔄]

Garry Tan (@garrytan)

  • I’ve been using particle-1 and very impressed [72 ❤️ 5 🔄]
  • Now you can use the smartest-for-the-money codegen model Particle-1 with the easiest setup codegen agent swarm harness Capy

🫡 killer mashup [61 ❤️ 6 🔄]

  • What’s the fastest way to get GBrain working with your agent?

Now just point your agent (any kind, Claude Code, Codex, Muse, Grok Bot, OpenClaw, Hermes) at this and get it going super fast. GBrain hosted = postgres with pgvector autoscaling for you. [183 ❤️ 13 🔄]

Matt Turck (@mattturck)

  • This great conversation with @nathanbenaich is also available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and here on YouTube: [5 ❤️ 2 🔄]
  • State of AI 2026: The Biggest Stories of the Year (and AGI in 2027?) - my conversation with @nathanbenaich:

0:00 Cold open and intro
0:56 AGI in 2027?
2:28 AI building AI: Claude leads 26% of Anthropic’s research
4:00 Research taste: can AI pick the right problem? 8:34 Doomerism is back, but cyber risk beats extinction
10:13 Prediction: a frontier model’s weights get stolen
13:05 How OpenAI’s agents ended up attacking Hugging Face
15:29 Why only a Chinese open-weight model could investigate
17:33 What frontier-lab cyber defense could look like
19:08 Self-replicating agents and the risks of AI swarms
21:16 Can frontier labs agree to slow down?
24:03 Why communities are blocking $50B of data centers
24:44 Nuclear plant vs. data center: what Americans prefer
26:45 Europe’s AI bottleneck: 80,000 GPUs and electricity costs
28:23 Where Europe can still win in AI
29:31 Catching up to OpenAI costs $1 trillion
29:43 Die trying for the frontier, or serve inference
30:31 How inference chips could give countries AI leverage
33:34 Why NVIDIA GPUs don’t guarantee AI sovereignty
36:14 The UK’s problem: “but we have DeepMind”
37:07 Why European defense AI needs domestic suppliers
39:41 Why OpenAI, Anthropic and Google keep pulling ahead
41:17 Where independent AI labs can still compete
43:26 World models: from robotics training to game engines
45:39 Would cheaper AI undermine the compute boom?
46:43 Will better models absorb the agent harness
49:41 AI due diligence: 12 expert interviews in 2.5 days
53:35 The trust problem with personal AI agents
56:22 Why prompt engineering put people off AI
59:02 Does AI need its own Genius Bar?
1:00:25 Codex beyond coding: agents for knowledge work
1:02:49 Why enterprises want to own their AI, not rent it
1:05:17 Rapid fire: home robots, NVIDIA returns and Arm [29 ❤️ 2 🔄]

Dan Shipper (@danshipper)

  • great day to buy stocks! [23 ❤️ 1 🔄]
  • we’re giving away a total of $20,000 in partner credits and benefits from Notion, Anthropic, and OpenAI to livestream viewers!

register at to enter the draw [12 ❤️]

  • if you’re not livestreaming thesis on november 5th from @every FOR FREE

what are you doing? [13 ❤️ 2 🔄]

Aditya Agarwal (@adityaag)

  • [61 ❤️ 1 🔄]

Claude (@claudeai)

  • What would you like to see next? [1255 ❤️ 25 🔄]
  • Coming soon on iPhone and iPad: pull down to search. Find a past chat or project, jump to any setting, or act on a chat from the results. [578 ❤️ 7 🔄]
  • On iPhone, voice mode now works with Apple CarPlay. Ask Claude something on the drive and keep your hands on the wheel. [2057 ❤️ 89 🔄]

由 Follow Builders 自动生成 · 2026-10-30